YOU have just become the big winner of the latest reshuffle of White House personnel.
No, this is not the result of your own Machiavellian skills in intrigue, backstabbing, and betrayal. You have ME to thanks for this development.
Sometimes it seems that there is no corner on earth I haven???t visited, no event I didn???t know about in advance, and no organization where I don???t already have an intimate contact.
Today is one of those days.
That’s what I felt upon learning that my friend, Anthony Scaramucci, had been appointed White House communications director.
I have known Anthony for many years, known to his friends as ???the Mooch.??? (see my last piece on him below).
I can tell you with total certainty that communications between the White House and the press are about to become polite, civil, and professional.
His predecessor, Sean Spicer, was rude, offensive, reviled by the press, and endlessly parodied on Saturday Night Live, to devastating effect.
Apparently, he resigned after a furious shouting match with the head guy there.
The upgrade could change the entire way the financial markets view the White House.
After five decades flitting in and out of the upper echelons of power around the world, I can tell you that it is incredibly useful to know people at the top when you???re a trader and investor.
It’s not because they hand over any kind of precious inside information. It???s all a matter of learning the code words they speak.
That’s how, after attending Janet Yellen???s economics classes at UC Berkeley, I was able to translate her cautious, measured, and introspective comments into a string of winning Treasury bond (TLT) Trade Alerts that ran for years.
Anthony should be able to provide me with similar insights, no matter how indirectly he does it.
Insights we will need in spades, because this market is getting trickier by the day.
I hate to belabor the points I made earlier this week in highlighting the current elevated levels of risk in the markets.
But I???ll do it anyway.
A market that doesn???t breath is impossible to trade.
When the dumb money is more profitable than the smart money, a reference to passive over active managers, you want to run a mile.
However, we also know that ???markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid,??? to quote the great economist, John Maynard Keynes.
The more money that pours into algorithmic trading the smaller the market dips.
Algo???s after all, can only look backwards, and if the recent pas says ???Buy every dip???, they will do exactly that.
I am not turning into a permabear. I just believe that we have to go down first before we go back up to new highs again.
Call me old fashioned.
As I never tire of telling followers, market sweet spots with which to initiate new Trade Alerts don???t occur every day. Rather, they occur in bunches at occasional market extremes.
I am patiently waiting for one of those extremes.
Most investors are willing to look across any valley, lest they lose positions in good names, which they can???t get back.
The amazing this about trading last week was that the ???RISK OFF??? move I predicted played out across every asset class except one. Treasury bonds (TLT), gold (GLD), and oil (USO) all rose.
Only stocks failed to get the memo, crushing the Volatility Index (VIX) yet again, and taking it to a new 25 year low.
The Q2 earnings reports continue apace this week, shedding new light on the true state of the US economy.
Among the marquee names will be Alphabet (GOOG), 3M (MMM), AT&T (T), US Steel (X), and Facebook (FB).
On Monday, July 24 at 10:00 AM EST, we will see the Existing Home Sales, which have been cooling of late, thanks to the new lumber import duty.
On Tuesday, July 25 the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting of Fed governors starts.
On Wednesday, July 26, at 7:00 AM EST MBA Mortgage Applications are published.
At 10:30 AM EST the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report is out.
At 2:00 PM Janet Yellen will concede that there is absolutely no reason to raise interest rates whatsoever.
Thursday, July 27 at 8:30 AM we learn about the Durable Goods, a read on the industrial economy. We also get Weekly Jobless Claims.
At 10:00 AM we learn the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims.
On Friday, July 28 at 8:30 AM EST we receive an updated read on Q2 GDP, which recently has been extremely weak.
Wrapping up the week at 1:00 PM is the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which has been up for most of the last 18 months, boding ill for oil prices.
As for me, I am heading up for a weekend of wine tasting at a private label vineyard in nearby Napa Valley.
On Saturday night I???ll catch my old friend, comedian and heroic vintage car collector Jay Leno.
You see, I really DO know everyone, everywhere!
Want to know what John Thomas REALLY thinks?
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