The precious metals complex has had a rough stretch since August, with the price of silver underperforming the S&P-500 by 3100 basis points in just four months, which has taken the wind out of most silver investors’ sails. Fortunately, this pullback has done any lasting technical damage, and the bullish long-term picture continues to remain intact.
The issue is that every single rally in the silver market brings out a heavy dose of bullish fervor, with sentiment soaring to nearly 60% bulls this week despite only a minor recovery in the metal. This mixed sentiment has made the prospects for a bottom in December less clear as investors are not as easily excitable after we’ve seen a capitulation and durable bottom. Let’s take a closer look below:
(Source: Daily Sentiment Index Data, Author’s Chart)
Beginning with a chart of bullish sentiment for silver, we can see that optimism has soared in the past week, even though silver has bounced barely 10% from its recent low. This is a negative development compared to past rallies, as the 24% rally in eight days for silver near the March bottom still saw the metal trading below 30% bulls, telling us that investors had completely thrown in the towel and were not in a rush to get back in the market.